Ten women, one night: the races that will redraw Washington

Decisions across the world are in limbo.

From companies deciding their next investment strategy, to students figuring out the country and university they will trust for their higher education. Countries determining who are their allies or enemies for the next few years, or which wars will continue, which will end. Every one of those decisions are hinged on the US mid-terms on Tuesday 3 November. Never has a US mid-term election meant as much to the global order, as the one we are on the precipice of.  

Americans vote on Tuesday in midterm elections that could potentially end unified Republican control of Washington. While the Republicans need only 50 seats to retain control of the Senate because of the tiebreaking vote of Vice President JD Vance, Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take the chamber. Seven states are rated Senate battlegrounds: Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Michigan. And while betting markets like on Kalshi are predicting a Democratic upswing, it is always wise to remember markets are not forecasts and polls have a history of being wrong.

If one looks closely at the contests that will settle the night there is a clear pattern that has emerged. For all the push back against women in positions of power, Republican and Democratic women sit at the centre of a striking number of the defining contests for that very power.

In three, both major-party candidates are women, so a woman wins whatever happens, and whichever side of the aisle wins.

The Senate: a swing vote, a war vote

Susan Collins of Maine chairs the Appropriations Committee, which writes the bills that fund the federal government. She is the only Republican senator from a state Donald Trump lost to Kamala Harris in 2024. The President endorsed Susan in June while noting she was “not my best friend at all”. The final Times/Siena poll has Democrat Troy Jackson ahead 51–45. In the final hours to the vote, her allies point to 2020, when she trailed most polls and won by nearly nine points.

A Collins defeat would cost Republicans more than a seat. It would remove the Senate's most reliable cross-party vote on spending and nominations. For Democrats, it is the likeliest single route to a majority.

In Iowa, congresswoman Ashley Hinson is running for Joni Ernst's open seat in a race the final polls call a coin flip: Josh Turek leading with a single point at 48, with Hinson at 47. The war with Iran, which began in February, has been a consistent shadow over her campaign. She voted against every House resolution to halt it, arguing Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. In September, she changed her tone, calling the war to reach an “immediate end”. Her result will be read as a verdict on the war in America’s heartland – its  farm country.

Two Democrats could make history. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, who currently leads Senator Dan Sullivan 48–46 under Alaska's ranked-choice system. In Minnesota, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan leads former broadcaster Michele Tafoya 48–41 for an open Democratic seat. Either could become the first Indigenous woman in the US Senate.

South Carolina was not on anyone's list until Senator Lindsey Graham suddenly died in July. His sister, Darline Graham, was “reluctantly” convinced by President Trump to take up the post in his stead. She currently holds the seat by appointment and carries the Republican nomination with President Trump's endorsement. She is facing off with paediatrician Annie Andrews in a race that is currently tied and in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998.

The statehouses: where the maps are drawn

Governors matter beyond their borders. They sign electoral maps, oversee how elections are run and can shape who fills a Senate vacancy.

Minnesota is staging its first all-woman major-party race for governor. Senator Amy Klobuchar, a four-term senator and 2020 presidential candidate, entered after Governor Tim Walz withdrew in January. House Speaker Lisa Demuth, the first Black legislator and first Republican woman to hold that post, won her primary by beating the Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell. The Green Party's Steven Young is also on the ballot, though he is currently trailing the two women. A Klobuchar win would open a second Minnesota Senate seat.

In Georgia, former Atlanta mayor and Biden White House adviser Keisha Lance Bottoms is facing off with billionaire businessman and Republican Rick Jackson to succeed the term-limited Brian Kemp. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has Jackson at 46 and Bottoms at 45, in a race that has had race as its most controversial element. A Bottoms win though would make her the first Black woman ever elected governor of a US state. Analysts at the Cook Political Report see Georgia as critical to coming redistricting fights and to how the 2028 presidential vote is run.

In Tennessee, Senator Marsha Blackburn, the state's first woman senator, is favoured to become its first woman governor; while her Democratic opponent, Jerri Green, would also be a first. It’s a tough road for the Democratic underdog as she battles it out in a state that has only elected Republican governors for four straight cycles. Blackburn has declined every debate invitation, including the Tennessee Press Association forum, saying she is talking to voters directly.

The long game

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faces no real threat in New York; she won 68.9% in 2024. Her campaign is about her party's direction. One University of New Hampshire poll placed her first among potential 2028 Democratic contenders, on 22%.

What changes

If the final polls hold, the Republicans in the Senate could lose its most independent member and potentially grow more closely aligned with President Trump. Democrats would win Senate seats in states they have not carried in decades, with newcomers rather than veterans. Three states would elect women whatever the result. If the polls are wrong, as they were in Maine six years ago, much of that story reverses.

For the rest of the world, the result will bring on a more difficult question. A divided Washington would mean slower legislation, sharper oversight and more friction over budgets, trade and the war with Iran. A Washington still under one party means continuity, even if that is not always to the benefit of the global multilateral system.

By Wednesday, several of these ten women will be in a position to help decide which,